July, 1849.
The Russian army, advancing like a tidal wave, crossed the border and subjugated the principalities along the Danube.
And two months later, in September.
Taking advantage of France's hesitation—believing the offensive would slow once winter arrived—Russia began pushing southward.
The curtain of full-scale war finally rose.
Until then, many people had doubted whether Russia was truly serious, wondering if all that noise about Jerusalem meant they had lost their minds.
But now that events had unfolded like this, no one could deny Russia's intentions.
France had made the mistake of overlooking the possibility that madness and sincerity could coexist.
Russia was sincerely out of its mind.
Of course, the Ottomans could not simply continue taking blows.
They formally assembled their army and issued an ultimatum.
—Withdraw your forces immediately or face war.
Tsar Nicholas responded with an absurd proposal.
If Jerusalem were ceded to Russia, he would withdraw.
With that exchange, war between the two sides became inevitable.
Given the circumstances, it was only natural that France—the European power most deeply involved in the matter—was panicking.
Guizot tried in his own way to resolve the crisis without war.
But unless he possessed some kind of mind-control beam, it had been an impossible mission from the beginning.
So once again, like Nobita crying for Doraemon—
"Help me, Killiamon!"
—he crossed the Channel and came to Britain.
I welcomed him with great enthusiasm.
"Your Highness, it has been a while. Thank you for making time to see me."
"You look well, Prime Minister… No, perhaps that would be rude. The circles under your eyes are pitch black. Are you alright?"
"I came all the way here precisely because I would like to be."
"With Count Beaufoy present, you could have simply communicated through the embassy."
"…He has been dismissed. Rather than entrusting such an important matter to a new ambassador, it seemed better that I come personally."
Oh my.
The ambassador who had acted out of patriotic duty for France had lost his position.
How tragic.
"The count did his best for France. His dismissal seems unfortunate. Russia going mad is hardly his fault."
"The problem was his certainty that Russia would never start a war."
So they had rushed the whole affair with full agreement—and now they blamed the ambassador alone.
If I were the count, I would have collapsed clutching my neck in frustration.
"Frankly, we were surprised as well. In a sense, Mr. Gladstone is quite fortunate. If things had gone slightly differently, the Liberal Party might have ended up in the same position as Count Beaufoy."
"…But did Britain truly not know?"
"Know what?"
"That Russia would start a war. A country capable of predicting droughts and revolutions years in advance somehow failed to foresee Russia starting a war?"
This man's victim mentality had sharpened his deductive abilities.
Of course I knew.
But unfortunately, without evidence, saying such things would only make me look like a madman.
"Prime Minister, analyzing logical patterns and trends is easy. Once you discover the rules governing them, interpretation follows naturally. But predicting the behavior of someone who is either mentally unstable or completely ignorant is impossible. When people are hungry, they eat. But if there exists a madman who swings a knife when he is hungry, how could anyone predict when he will eat?"
"…Yes. That makes sense. My apologies. I suppose I have grown overly sensitive from being harassed by so many people recently."
"Not at all. I fully understand how you feel. But you must be busy, so let us come to the point. Why have you come to see me?"
"Officially, I came to London to negotiate with Prime Minister Wellesley and discuss a joint response to Russia. But frankly, you, Prime Minister Wellesley, and I all know there is only one option left."
War.
Guizot could not bring himself to say the word aloud.
Instead, he bit his lip.
If France fought a full war with Russia, how many soldiers would it take?
One hundred thousand?
Not even close.
At least two hundred thousand—perhaps three hundred thousand or more.
And the cost of such a war…
Would their ancestors pay for it?
Naturally, the burden on the nation would be enormous.
Even victory would not fully compensate the expense.
It was no coincidence that even in actual history, public opinion in Britain had not been enthusiastic after the Crimean War.
They had won.
But it had been an ambiguous victory.
If one were to summarize modern European wars in a single sentence:
Even victory is costly.
Defeat is disastrous.
So what is the best answer?
Don't fight wars at all.
Hold hands and happily exploit Africa and Asia together.
France would much prefer doing exactly that.
But Russia kept dragging them into the swamp.
"Prime Minister, if there truly is only one answer, there is no reason to hesitate. The longer you delay, the greater the loss."
You could probably feel it already.
France's carefully cultivated reputation was cracking in real time.
If Russia acted as Europe's gendarme, France had recently styled itself as Europe's police officer—intervening in matters with a gentler approach.
But now, when confronted with Russia, France hesitated.
And that damaged its prestige.
People were beginning to say that France was strong against the weak and weak against the strong.
Even the Italian states that had been leaning toward France were now stepping back to observe the situation.
"Your Highness. I understand that you are deeply involved in Britain's foreign policy. Could you shape public opinion so that Britain declares war on Russia together with France? Britain also wants to crush Russia, does it not?"
"Crush them? Britain is a peace-loving nation. Of course, if Russia disturbs that peace, we may have to guide them back onto the proper path."
"Then…"
"But it would be difficult for Britain to declare war first. If France declares war first, however, Britain could support France afterward."
In that arrangement, the war would technically be between France and Russia.
Britain would merely assist its ally.
Such a structure would give Britain justification to avoid committing excessive manpower.
If Britain became a primary belligerent, it would be forced to commit resources comparable to France.
"Surely Britain must restrain Russia eventually. Why not seize this opportunity and crush them completely so that they never threaten Europe again?"
"Unfortunately, we are preparing for the Great Exhibition next year. It will be the first world exposition in history, and Her Majesty is personally dedicating tremendous effort to its preparation."
"Then all the more reason to eliminate Russia before that event."
No.
No matter what argument he made, I had no intention of agreeing.
"Prime Minister, we have cooperated on many matters. I would like to help you. But Britain has no justification to declare war first, nor the circumstances to do so. Moreover, all of Europe is waiting for France's answer. If Britain steps forward instead, what will become of France's dignity?"
"That…"
"Many will think that France's boldness existed only because Britain tolerated it. They will say France has merely become Britain's subordinate."
"…."
"Of course Russia is a troublesome enemy. But that does not mean Britain will abandon France. If France takes the lead, Britain will join the war. I can promise you that. And although there may be casualties, the war itself will end in victory."
At least that part was true.
With Asia and Canada as its two wings, the British Empire was already stronger than in the original timeline.
Austria and Prussia were also nearly persuaded.
If France simply bore the initial burden, victory was inevitable.
Of course France would dislike being the one to bleed.
But they would also receive the glory of victory first.
"…You are certain the difference in strength is that great?"
"Yes. Once Britain joins the war, every Russian coastal city will be devastated. Their newly acquired Primorye will be reset to its original state. Meanwhile, on land, the 'world's strongest' French army will push the Russians back."
"…Our army is stronger than Russia's, yes, but…"
"And with time, Austria and Prussia will also join the war. Britain will handle the diplomatic arrangements. You need not worry. Of course, I believe war should be avoided. But when a madman stands before you, eventually you must fight him. Frankly speaking, France will never again have such strong support behind it while confronting Russia."
Guizot had come here to persuade Britain.
Instead, he found himself listening to a lecture on the 101 reasons France was guaranteed to defeat Russia.
His eyes slowly lost focus.
"…Therefore, Prime Minister, this is actually an opportunity for you. Napoleon was defeated by Russia. But you will defeat them. Napoleon fought to dominate Europe. You will fight to protect it."
"…But…"
"Let us be frank. Your choices are simple. Either fight Russia—or surrender to Russia's demands. If you choose the latter, your political career is finished. If you choose the former, the outcome of the war may either destroy you… or elevate you to greatness."
If both choices lead to death, one might as well choose the path that offers even a small chance of survival.
In truth, Guizot's options had always been limited.
What he wanted was Britain's support to widen that narrow path.
I smiled faintly and began filling him with confidence.
In my previous life, I had once persuaded investors by claiming their investment would succeed by 1200%.
At least this time I was not lying.
The war would be won.
And Guizot would earn the title of a victorious prime minister.
Although there was no guarantee that France would be the nation that gained the most from the victory.
The turmoil in Europe did not remain confined to Europe.
It crossed the ocean and reached the opposite continent.
—Signs suggest a great war may soon erupt in Europe.
The twelfth President of the United States, a Whig who had won office after considerable turmoil—
Zachary Taylor, a soldier rather than a natural politician—
saw the news as an opportunity.
The conflict within the United States over slavery was reaching extreme levels.
There seemed to be no way to resolve it.
But if Europe became too busy fighting itself to interfere in American affairs, a temporary solution might emerge.
"Russia is currently at war with the Ottoman Turks. Most analysts believe France or Britain will eventually join the conflict."
"Mr. President, with respect, the United States has no capacity to concern itself with foreign wars right now."
The ministers panicked, thinking the president intended to intervene in Europe.
But Taylor raised his hand to silence them.
"Of course we will not involve ourselves in Europe's chaos. But this is an opportunity granted to us by God."
"An opportunity?"
"If Europe is busy fighting itself, it will no longer have time to meddle in American affairs."
"That… is true."
"So in that case."
Taylor pointed with his pen at a corner of the North American map.
The Republic of Texas and the northern territories of Mexico—blocking the United States' path to the Pacific.
"Let's attack Mexico."
"…."
"…?"
The ministers' minds skipped several steps of logic.
For a moment they sat in stunned silence.
Then they spoke in unison.
"An excellent idea!"
"I wholeheartedly support it!"
Last time Britain had interfered.
But if Europe was too busy dealing with its own problems, the situation would be different.
Hand over the Pacific, tacos.
The world was descending into chaos in real time.