By the time it became impossible for anyone in Europe to remain unaware that Russia had thrown a massive pile of filth across the continent—
[Return of the Great War? Will the Ottomans Declare War on Russia?]
[Does Russia Dream of Becoming Napoleon? Remember the Fate of Reckless Territorial Ambition!]
[What Will France and Britain Choose? War or Negotiation!]
Articles poured out one after another, and newspaper companies enjoyed an unexpected boom.
Having defeated Ottoman forces along the Danube, Russia did not hesitate to annex the nearby principalities and openly declared that it would never withdraw its army.
Newspapers, whose ultimate goal was always to increase circulation, could hardly ignore such a story.
Not only in Britain but also in France, newspapers talked incessantly about what was happening in the East.
Those who still remembered the horrors of the Napoleonic Wars raised their voices and insisted that war must be avoided.
Unfortunately, their numbers were far too small.
Thirty-four years had passed since the Battle of Waterloo.
The soldiers who had once been young men were now old.
And the image of war held by most young people was completely different from theirs.
"War? I've been there before. The hardest part is the time spent sailing on ships. Once the battle starts, it's actually manageable. Just fire your musket in time with the commands and it's over before you know it."
"You ignorant children who know nothing about real war… What you experienced wasn't war—it was bullying weaker countries! Real war isn't like that!"
"Oh, here we go again. 'Back in my day~ during the Napoleonic Wars~.'"
"Napoleon, Napoleon… stop going on about that loser who couldn't even defeat Russia. We've been to battlefields ourselves."
"You idiots! Real war is nothing like that!"
Still, for those who wished to avoid war, there was at least one fortunate fact.
Among the politicians were many who still remembered the Napoleonic Wars.
One representative figure was France's former prime minister, Nicolas Jean-de-Dieu Soult.
Now eighty years old, the elderly marshal had returned to politics and spoke loudly every day against a war led by France.
"Gentlemen! Remember history. France has already launched a great war once under its own leadership, and the devastation it caused is clearly recorded in our history. War must be the last resort. It is not a decorative sword to be drawn whenever one pleases!"
Soult's speech left passionate young men tilting their heads in confusion.
But middle-aged citizens and the elderly supported him strongly.
And this hesitant attitude ironically gave Russia greater confidence.
"Just as we expected. France and Britain are desperately trying to avoid war. They are still trapped in the ghost of Napoleon. Unless we go so far as to completely destroy the Ottoman Empire, they will not intervene."
"Your Majesty's insight was correct."
"This is all thanks to the minister who confirmed in London that Britain and France are not prepared for war. Now all we need is a suitable justification. That task must be handled by the Foreign Ministry. How is it progressing?"
"Yes. We are informing all of Europe that the Ottomans continue to persecute Orthodox believers, and that the Russian Empire, protector of the Orthodox Church, had no choice but to take up arms."
The justification was almost pure nonsense.
But it still provided Russia with considerable advantages.
Refuting a single lie always required a mountain of evidence.
The Ottoman Empire, being an Islamic state, naturally did not recognize the Russian Orthodox Church as an equal faith.
But would the weakened Ottomans truly be foolish enough to persecute Christians?
If they did, the European powers would immediately march in singing songs of joy.
Even though Christianity was not officially accepted, state-led persecution was virtually nonexistent.
Still, wherever humans lived, disputes and conflicts were inevitable.
Russia gathered every possible case of Orthodox merchants or citizens who had experienced discrimination within the Ottoman Empire.
And elevated those incidents into a justification for war.
There was also another issue.
The jurisdiction over the Holy Land that France had recently obtained from the Ottomans.
Russia had already defeated the Ottomans once before and secured protectorate rights in Jerusalem through the Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca.
But France had cleverly exploited the treaty's ambiguities and seized its own rights.
Russia therefore placed all blame back on the Ottomans.
"This time we must seize the entire Black Sea region. The Greeks are weak cowards—once they fall under our influence they will simply obey us. So all we need to do is crush the Ottomans."
"Yes, Your Majesty."
"If we finish this quickly, Britain and France will never intervene. The French still cannot escape the nightmare of Napoleon. Isn't that right?"
France, which had already tasted humiliation once at Russia's hands, was barely worth considering.
Britain was more concerning.
But Nicholas was not worried.
"The British are all talk. Their actions show they have consistently tried to avoid war with us. When we absorbed Primorye, they tried to compensate by purchasing Alaska rather than blocking our expansion. They even used weak countries like Joseon as buffers to avoid confronting us directly."
"Your Majesty is correct. This time as well they will likely attempt to mediate the conflict while securing other concessions for themselves. After all, they are busy organizing that international event—the Great Exhibition."
Russia differed fundamentally from those cowards.
Russia did not fear struggle.
The nations of Western Europe had always been weak.
Blessed with fertile lands, they had lost their innate ferocity.
Napoleon had been the only somewhat respectable figure.
Yet even he had collapsed before the great mountain that was Russia.
In the end, the only nation that had consistently proven its strength was Russia.
Britain?
They were an exception.
Islanders who relied on ships had always played on a different stage.
No matter how much they sailed around, conquering land required a powerful army.
Could the British Royal Navy sail into Moscow or Saint Petersburg and fire their cannons there?
"Since the Ottomans treacherously abandoned negotiations with us and granted greater authority to France, this war is nothing less than a struggle to restore the dignity of our Orthodox Church. How dare those decayed Catholics try to control Jerusalem."
"Your Majesty, then when should we begin negotiations with Britain…?"
"What do you think? We will eventually have to accept their mediation to end the war, but it would be best to delay that as long as possible."
"I agree. First we should seize as much Ottoman territory as possible, then proceed to negotiations."
Nicholas had ruled for over twenty-four years.
During that time he had tried repeatedly to reform society and abolish serfdom.
Some results had been achieved, but fundamental structural reforms remained incomplete.
One reason was the damaged national finances left by the Napoleonic Wars.
Another was the stagnation of commerce caused largely by Britain's economic dominance.
Of course, not everything was Britain's fault.
But an emperor could hardly blame himself.
Russia's economy was weak compared to its enormous size.
Someone had to bear the responsibility.
And no nation suited that role better than Britain.
Remove Britain—and Russia would flourish.
This baseless belief gradually grew more extreme.
Until even fear itself became paralyzed.
And besides—
how strong could Britain truly be?
Russia had already defeated Napoleon, the strongest man in the world.
If Britain chose to oppose Russia, it would share Napoleon's fate.
In Nicholas's imagination, the Union Jack was already being torn apart by the claws of the Russian double-headed eagle.
[Prime Minister Guizot Seeks Negotiations with Russia!]
[Former Prime Minister Soult Calls for Peace—Coward or True Statesman?]
[Orthodox Challenge to Catholicism! What Is the Difference Between the Two Faiths?]
Despite the efforts of anti-war voices, the situation continued to worsen.
Slowly.
But steadily.
No matter how hard François Guizot tried under the orders of Louis-Philippe, the crisis showed no signs of improving.
"Look at the terrible persecution suffered by our Orthodox believers! The Ottomans have quietly handed rights previously granted to us over to France. This clearly demonstrates their intention to disregard Orthodoxy even further!"
"That is not the case. This agreement does not contradict the previous treaty between Russia and the Ottomans. The Ottomans explicitly stated that the earlier treaty did not transfer Jerusalem's jurisdiction to Russia."
"That is merely Ottoman sophistry. Furthermore, the Ottomans have repeatedly provoked Russia under the belief that Britain and France will support them. His Imperial Majesty has declared that he will no longer tolerate such arrogance and has finally raised the army. This is Russia's legitimate right and an act of self-defense."
"Then you have already annexed the Danubian principalities. Should that not be enough? If you stop there, we are willing to mediate and confirm the current territorial status."
"That will not be possible."
Russia had become a runaway locomotive.
Completely dominated by the invisible belief that France would never dare go to war.
"You must also acknowledge that jurisdiction over Jerusalem belongs to the Russian Empire."
"What nonsense is this? France signed a formal agreement with the Ottomans. Why should Russia dictate its terms?"
"Because earlier treaties already made Jerusalem effectively part of the Russian Empire's sphere as the center of Orthodoxy."
At this point it had gone too far.
Prime Minister Guizot felt his patience reaching its limit.
Whether the Ottomans were beaten by Russia was none of France's concern.
But dragging religious pride into the matter crossed the line.
Logically speaking, he could understand Russia's motives.
War required justification.
And once they had chosen this absurd excuse, they were now trapped by their own words.
But that did not mean France could accommodate them.
"I will make this clear. France will not abandon Jerusalem. However, we are willing to compromise on other matters. Let us seek a settlement elsewhere."
"His Majesty demands Jerusalem."
"Then what exactly do you intend? Will the Russian army march through Anatolia and physically occupy Jerusalem?"
"If the Ottomans continue persecuting Orthodox believers, such measures may have to be considered."
This had truly gone mad.
In other words—
If France refused to negotiate, Russia was threatening to push its army all the way through Anatolia.
Of course, the statement itself was merely pressure.
Russia was demanding that France surrender Jerusalem voluntarily.
In other words, they wanted to establish the precedent that France had backed down before Russia.
If Guizot started a war, Louis-Philippe would dismiss him immediately.
But if he surrendered Jerusalem, would he keep his position?
He might be condemned as a heretic who had humiliated all Catholics beneath the Orthodox Church.
Either choice was political suicide.
Faced with this impossible dilemma, Guizot finally made his decision.
"Arrange a schedule as quickly as possible. I will go to London."
Among all French prime ministers in history, no one had crossed the English Channel more times.
True to his reputation, Guizot—the master of crossing the Dover Strait—once again sailed for Britain.