"Then let us start with this question."
After Takahashi finished speaking, he turned back to look at the two lines of text on the blackboard.
Cooperation Reached.
No Cooperation.
He did not rush to refute the point just because a first-year student had suddenly pointed out an issue; instead, he lowered his head, opened his lecture notes, and found the valuation table for the mutual benefits again.
"I admit that this analysis primarily calculates what Seibu and Saionji would each gain after the cooperation is achieved."
Takahashi looked up.
"However, even without Saionji's intervention, Seibu would not immediately lose its railways, hotels, and land."
"Projects can be delayed, funding shortages can be addressed through refinancing, or a portion of assets can be sold. The price Seibu would have to pay would certainly be higher, but these things would not simply vanish."
He spoke very directly and did not deliberately downplay Seibu's situation.
Seibu was indeed facing serious problems at the time, but it had not reached the point of bankruptcy and liquidation the very next day.
The vast railway network, hotels, and land still existed and could still be used as collateral or sold.
After listening, Satsuki nodded gently.
"I agree with that point."
Takahashi had been prepared to continue his explanation, but upon hearing her express agreement so quickly, he paused slightly.
"Since you agree, then the long-term assets that Seibu retains should certainly be included in the valuation."
"They certainly should."
Satsuki opened the section of her lecture notes that recorded the Odaiba project.
"But if there is no cooperation, how long would Seibu need to delay?"
"And which assets would it need to sell?"
"When would the Prince Hotel, exhibition facilities, and transportation projects be able to resume construction?"
Takahashi frowned slightly.
"There are no public, accurate answers to these."
"That is why I am not asking Takahashi-senpai to provide accurate answers."
Satsuki flipped the lecture notes to that valuation table.
"However, when you calculated Seibu's hotels, land, and transportation facilities, you used the premise of long-term gains they could generate after the project resumed and Odaiba was successfully developed."
"But why were the potential delays, financing costs, and asset sales that might occur without cooperation not deducted from that?"
The classroom quieted down a bit.
Naoki, standing near the back door, also hurriedly opened his lecture notes and quickly found the table Satsuki was referring to.
He stared at the numbers on it for a moment.
Takahashi had indeed calculated the earnings of the hotels and exhibition facilities as if they were completed normally.
As for how long the project would be halted, how much interest would need to be paid on loans, and whether Seibu would be forced to sell assets after Saionji's intervention was excluded, there were no corresponding deductions in the table.
Takahashi also looked back at his own materials.
"Do you mean that I was too optimistic about Seibu without the cooperation?"
"At the very least, this lecture note does not explain where that optimism comes from."
Satsuki's tone remained very calm.
"You placed the gains that are only possible after cooperation entirely on Seibu's side."
"But the effects brought about by the cooperation were counted as costs that Saionji must pay."
Takahashi did not avoid the question.
He picked up a piece of chalk and wrote a few words under "No Cooperation."
Project delays.
Refinancing.
Asset sales.
"Alright."
"This part should indeed be readjusted."
Several freshmen in the audience looked surprised.
They had originally thought Takahashi would immediately start arguing with the girl in the back row, but they had not expected that as soon as the first issue was clarified, Takahashi would directly admit that there was an omission in the valuation.
However, he quickly turned around and tapped the railways and hotels on the other side with his chalk.
"Even if we lower the value of these assets, what Seibu retains is still the ownership of the railways, hotels, and land."
"The operating rights Saionji obtained are only for ten or fifteen years."
Takahashi looked at Satsuki.
"As long as you extend the timeframe enough, assets that can be held long-term are still more valuable than limited-term operating rights. This judgment should not be a problem, right?"
"That depends on how you calculate the value of the operating rights."
Satsuki did not immediately refute his conclusion, but instead flipped to the section on in-station commerce in the lecture notes.
"Takahashi-senpai, how did you calculate the operating rights for these stations?"
"In-station commercial area, nearby rent, and then referencing the average earnings of similar shops."
Takahashi quickly read out the corresponding page number.
"The specific contracts have not been fully disclosed, so I used a relatively conservative calculation method."
"Then why did you still count the daily passenger flow of these stations?"
Takahashi was stunned for a moment.
"Passenger flow naturally affects the revenue of in-station businesses."
"But in this table, the passenger flow did not actually enter the calculation."
Satsuki raised the lecture notes slightly.
"What you calculated using the commercial area and nearby rent is just roughly how much money could be collected after renting these locations to ordinary merchants."
"But what Saionji received is not just the right to rent out shops."
"Food, dining, retail, advertising, vending machines, and the existing logistics system can all reach the people who pass by these stations every day."
Takahashi immediately said: "It is impossible for everyone passing through the station to consume."
"Besides, operating these businesses requires renovations, staff, inventory, and transportation; these are all costs. You cannot just see passenger flow and count every single person as Saionji's revenue."
"Of course, you cannot count everyone."
Satsuki answered very crisply.
"However, you also cannot delete them all just because you do not know how many of them will consume."
She tapped the passenger flow statistics at the front of the lecture notes with her finger.
"Takahashi-senpai spent a lot of time investigating how many people pass through these stations every day."
"When it came to the final valuation, you only kept the shop area."
"Where did these people go?"
A soft sound of page-turning came from the lecture hall.
Several freshmen simultaneously flipped back to that passenger flow table.
The numbers on it were still there.
Takahashi had also repeatedly emphasized the value of fixed passenger flow for in-station commerce during his presentation.
But when actually calculating the operating rights, he still adopted an approach close to ordinary shop rent, not incorporating Saionji's ability to utilize passenger flow through its own brand effect and supply chain.
Naoki stared at the table for a long time.
He finally understood why Satsuki, with just one sentence, had made him feel that this originally very complete table was missing something.
Takahashi was silent for a few seconds, looking down at the passenger flow table on the lecture notes.
"But we have no idea how many people will consume inside the stations."
He looked up.
"Filling in a random percentage might make the numbers look better, but it will not necessarily be closer to reality."
"Then calculate several more scenarios."
Satsuki said.
Takahashi frowned slightly.
"Calculate several more?"
"Take a sufficiently low ratio, then take two slightly higher ratios, and calculate each one separately."
Satsuki raised her hand and tapped the table.
"This way, we can at least see in which direction the results will shift once passenger flow is factored in."
"But those are still assumptions."
"Valuation is inherently inseparable from assumptions. As long as the conditions used are clearly stated, others can naturally judge whether the result is reliable."
She paused for a moment and then asked:
"Does not Takahashi-senpai's current table also use an assumption?"
"What assumption?"
"The assumption that the people passing through these stations every day will not bring a single cent to Saionji."
Takahashi's gaze fell back onto the passenger flow table.
Satsuki smiled gently.
"This calculation method is indeed very conservative."
"It is just a little biased."
A few low chuckles rang out in the classroom, and several students sitting in the front row were frantically winking at Takahashi.
Takahashi's brow twitched.
He did not notice those students, but his gaze toward Satsuki became more serious.
"But even if passenger flow is added to the calculation, operating costs cannot be ignored."
"Saionji has to establish a corresponding supply system to send goods into every station."
"But Saionji already has its own supply system."
Satsuki flipped to the photos taken in the field at the back of the lecture notes.
"These were also investigated by Takahashi-senpai."
On the photos, one could clearly see Saionji Logistics trucks, as well as the group's products that had already entered the station counters.
"The cost of extending existing transport routes to new stations is not the same as building an entire logistics network from scratch."
"It is normal that you do not know the true cost of Saionji Logistics."
"But why do you assume every store needs to start from scratch?"
Takahashi opened his mouth but did not answer immediately.
He looked down at the photos, then looked at the operating costs he had written in the table.
Those numbers were referenced based on the average costs that independent merchants would need to bear after entering a station.
For a group that already possessed agriculture, logistics, retail, and advertising businesses, this calculation was obviously a bit crude.
Of course, this was just from the perspective of Saionji Group.
Based on the materials a third-year university student could access, Takahashi had already done quite well.
"You are right; this part also needs adjustment."
Takahashi once again admitted his mistake.
Subsequently, he raised his hand and pointed to the Odaiba relationship diagram on the blackboard.
"However, the positive externalities that the Odaiba development brings to Seibu still exist."
"Saionji Tower and the group headquarters will bring employees, clients, and overseas visitors. They will need to stay in hotels and will also use Seibu's transportation facilities; the land retained by Seibu will also appreciate in value because of this."
"These gains are brought about by Saionji's investment, but a significant portion of them will remain with Seibu."
Takahashi paused.
"You should not have any objection to this, right?"
"No."
Satsuki still did not evade.
"Seibu will certainly benefit from Saionji's Odaiba investment."
"Then—"
"However, explaining this in words seems a bit troublesome."
Satsuki interrupted him.
She glanced at the relationship diagram on the blackboard and then looked at Takahashi.
"Takahashi-senpai, could I borrow a piece of chalk?"
Takahashi was stunned for a moment.
Others in the classroom also turned their heads one after another.
Satsuki handed the lecture notes in her hand to Reiko, then stood up from her seat and walked forward along the aisle in the middle of the lecture hall.
She walked forward along the aisle in the middle of the lecture hall, her heels falling on each step, making a steady, unhurried sound.
The freshmen who were originally sitting next to the aisle subconsciously retracted their legs, making more room for her.
Ayako watched Satsuki walk toward the podium and lightly nudged Reiko beside her with her elbow.
"It seems like it is starting."
Reiko turned her head to look at her.
"What is starting?"
"The thing that Saionji-san is best at."
"Keep your voice down."
Satsuki had already arrived in front of the podium.
Takahashi looked at her for two seconds, then handed over the chalk in his hand.
"What are you going to draw?"
"The positive externalities you mentioned earlier, senpai."
Satsuki took the chalk, first wrote "Saionji Investment" on a blank space on the blackboard, and then drew an arrow to the right.
Behind the arrow was "Odaiba Passenger Flow."
Next, she drew two lines downward from the passenger flow.
One line led to Prince Hotel, Seibu transportation, and surrounding land.
The other led to in-station commerce, hotel procurement, and stadium-surrounding operations.
Satsuki lowered her arm and stepped back half a step.
"What Takahashi-senpai just talked about is mainly the line above."
"Saionji develops Odaiba, bringing in more passenger flow, and Seibu's hotels, transportation, and land gain revenue as a result."
Takahashi nodded.
"That is correct."
"But the same group of people will also pass through the station businesses operated by Saionji, consume products provided by S-Farm at Prince Hotel, and will also enter the dining and retail areas around the stadium."
Satsuki tapped the line below with the chalk.
"This is the purpose of putting these operating rights and procurement agreements into the same cooperation."
"A portion of the passenger flow and demand created by Saionji will return to the Saionji system through these entry points."
The lecture hall was very quiet.
The diagram Satsuki drew was very simple, not even using many economic terms.
Yet, even the freshmen who had just been introduced to this matter could understand the difference between the two arrows.
Takahashi stared at the blackboard for a while.
"So you believe that I overestimated the external benefits Seibu would receive."
"You did not overestimate the benefits Seibu would receive."
Satsuki shook her head gently.
"You just failed to calculate how many benefits Saionji could recover."
She put the chalk back on the edge of the podium.
"The same group of people brings revenue to Seibu when they stay at Prince Hotel, and also brings revenue to Saionji when they walk into the station shops."
"By only calculating the former and treating the latter as ordinary shop rent, the result will naturally be more biased toward Seibu."
Takahashi looked at the two lines on the blackboard, remaining silent for a long time.