Chapter 186: The Grand Strategist
Deep beneath the Red Keep, in the secret tunnels buried within the heart of Aegon's High Hill, Varys walked with his companion. Clad in full disguise and holding a flickering torch, he spoke as they moved side by side: "Plans cannot keep pace with changes. Regardless of whether young Aegon is ready, the counter-offensive must begin sooner."
"Sooner? How much sooner? The boy hasn't fully grown; I can't exactly pull his head and feet to stretch him taller," Illyrio grumbled. "What is the situation exactly, for you to be in such a rush?"
"The Iron Islands struck first, raiding the coasts of the West, but they were repelled head-on and gained nothing. The Old Lion refuses to hand over his children; instead, he has proactively sent troops to sabotage the food production and transport in the Riverlands. He's also established some sort of bank in Lannisport, implementing gold controls and mandatory war bonds—anyone holding gold above a certain amount at home instead of the bank is deemed a traitor, facing total asset seizure and the gallows..."
"He's mad!" Illyrio said in shock. "That certainly raises massive funds quickly, but how is it different from daylight robbery? Treating his own subjects this way, even if he wins, the Lion can forget about ruling the West in peace ever again."
"People said the same when Tywin exterminated the Reynes and Tarbecks, yet didn't he end up as the most formidable and securely entrenched Great Lord in the realm? If one cannot keep their life, there is no point talking about the quality of their rule. Besides, the difference between forced loans and robbery is—if he wins, he might actually pay them back later." The eunuch frowned. "So far, I don't see his path to victory, but my little birds bring word that the Lion intends to hire sellswords from the Stepstones and Essos to harass the eastern coast of Westeros to buy time... but what use is buying time? Unless Robert dies..."
"Hiring outsiders to harass the enemy's rear? An interesting tactic; Tywin's military talent lives up to its name." Illyrio nodded with interest, then shifted the topic: "How is the King's injury?"
"What use is an interesting tactic? It's merely tickling the six kingdoms while inciting greater hatred," Varys said gloomily, stepping around a puddle. "As for the King's injury, there were signs of improvement, but it suddenly began to worsen a few days ago. The Faith claims it's because a 'wight' was brought into the Red Keep, but I suspect Pycelle has been tampering with the medicine... The Hand clearly shares the same suspicion, which is why he ordered other Maesters to take over the King's treatment."
"Is that wight real?"
"By my reckoning, it is. The Night's Watch wheels it out for display every day; the crowds coming to see it block several streets. You can see for yourself... why ask?" Varys glanced at Illyrio. "Surely you don't think a Westeros plagued by wights and White Walkers isn't worth half a lifetime of planning to conquer? I assure you, if the Wall has held those things back for thousands of years, it won't fail in a moment. If you're truly worried, donate some coin to the Watch to help them out."
"I take a ship back to Pentos tonight. As for donations... we'll see. The Braavosi should be far more worried about those things threatening Westeros than I am." The Magister shook his head, suppressing his curiosity about the wight, and returned to the previous topic: "Pycelle—is he the Grand Maester you once told me was loyal to the Lannisters?"
"The very one. If he succeeds, we might have ample time. But if Robert lives... it won't matter if the Lannisters turn the art of war into a masterpiece; victory is ultimately decided by population and resources." Varys mused, "Perhaps I should lend the Lannisters a hand..."
The eunuch pushed a hidden mechanism on the wall. With a low, rumbling thud, the path behind them was slowly sealed by a stone slab, turning into a smooth, solid wall without a single crack.
...
The Magister, unfazed by the display, continued: "If the Lannisters are wiped out, they are wiped out. How does that affect our plan?"
"The impact is massive. The Lion is my most useful chess piece." Since they were nearing an exit, Varys lowered his voice. "To ensure the Seven Kingdoms are in a state of chaos when young Aegon lands, there must be a sufficiently powerful force to destabilize the situation at the critical moment. The West and the Reach meet those criteria. The North lacks manpower... but counting the ruling prestige of House Stark and their influence over the Riverlands and the Vale, they barely qualify. However, of the three, the current Hand Eddard Stark is a cautious and steady man; I cannot control him. The Reach is riddled with internal factions; trying to move them like a marionette would require more strings than all of Westeros possesses. Only the West—rich in gold, strong in military, and highly centralized—has a ruler who is sensitive, proud, and arrogant. With just one string—interfering with Tywin's judgment by making him feel his family's honor and prestige are violated—I can utilize the entire power of the West. Now, this most useful piece faces the crisis of destruction, and I cannot even guarantee I can find a suitable replacement before I die."
"What were you doing earlier?" Illyrio frowned. "How did you let a farce like the Kingslayer 'attacking the King and then escaping' happen?"
"I am not a god; I cannot predict what a fool will do!" Varys was unable to accept his partner's accusation, his tone tinged with displeasure. "Eddard is a suspicious man. You have no idea how much effort I spent using indirect hints to make him 'spontaneously' devise a plan to deal with the Lannisters! I only needed to keep Jaime and Cersei in hand. No matter how furious Lord Tywin became, he would have to swallow it. Once that resentment was planted, it would ferment and grow more powerful... When the time came for us to use it, we would simply help the Lannister siblings escape back to the West, and war would be imminent. Who knew a Commander of the City Watch would jump out of nowhere and intercept the Kingslayer just as he reached the city gates, about to board a ship for his place of house arrest!"
"The one I heard about upon arrival? The one beheaded in the plaza of the Great Sept of Baelor, shouting 'I served the realm, I bled for the Iron Throne, I want to see the King' before he died?"
"Yes, that's the one."
"Fine, I believe it wasn't your fault. I retract my words and apologize." Illyrio accepted Varys's explanation; given their relationship, they couldn't truly stay at odds. "The destruction of House Lannister makes creating chaos in the future much harder, but at worst, it just costs more funds and manpower. It won't make the task impossible, will it?"
"Chaos can still be created, but losing a powerful and controllable variable... the difficulty of maintaining that chaos will increase significantly." Varys took a deep breath. "The only thing left to exploit is the struggle for the throne after Robert dies."
Illyrio replied without hesitation: "Then let Robert die. Do you truly have any loyalty or affection for him?"
"Robert can die, but what happens after? The North, the Riverlands, and the Vale are natural allies. When Littlefinger was here, he could influence the Vale through his lady, but with that man chased away by a single slip of paper and the Lords Declarant's rebellion suppressed... driving a wedge between those three houses is now nearly impossible. I haven't even figured out who was behind that initial slip of paper. The Reach and the Stormlands are currently close... Without the West as a strong neutral party, and with Dorne already ours, no matter how I stir things up, this war will inevitably evolve into a conflict between two great alliances, North and South. Do you understand what I mean?"
...
"If a war between North and South breaks out, can't we just wait for them to exhaust each other and then step in?"
"You always assume everyone else is a fool. We can manipulate those nobles because I am in the shadows and they are in the light, but they are not stupid. Once war breaks out, I have no means to control the outcome of battles or campaigns. These two alliances are inherently similar in strength. The Northern alliance cannot break into the Reach, and the Southerners cannot breach the Bloody Gate or the Neck... Realizing they cannot achieve a decisive victory, and without a variable as powerful as the West to break the stalemate, neither side will fight to the death. After all... Winter is Coming. I can provoke a war, but I cannot control its direction. No matter how I simulate it, Westeros will eventually split into two blocks, North and South. The only difference will be whether the Crownlands and the West fall under the practical control of the South or the North. When that time comes, do you expect young Aegon—without dragons—to use sellswords to follow in the footsteps of his namesake ancestor and defeat two rested Northern and Southern powers one after the other to reunite the realm?"
"That is grim... but, don't we have dragons now? Three of them."
"Daenerys has dragons, not us," Varys corrected. "Only by bringing her back quickly and marrying her to young Aegon can we barely call them our dragons... Young Aegon cannot ride a dragon, as you well know. Whether their children can is still an unknown. Damn it, if I had known the situation would change so fast, I wouldn't have let Jorah take her east. The last news I had, she had just killed a bunch of slave masters in Astapor to get the Unsullied and was on her way to Yunkai. I have no idea where she is now."
"Are those three small dragons... truly that important?"
"The dragons are small; what is important is Daenerys Targaryen. You don't understand the mindset of the Westerosi. Daenerys is the Targaryen descendant that the entire Seven Kingdoms recognize, believe in, and is indeed genuine. Young Aegon, standing beside her and receiving her recognition, is Aegon Targaryen!" Varys stepped onto the stairs and suddenly looked back. "I told you to find Petyr Baelish. Have you caught him?"
"His counter-tracking awareness is high, but we traced his destination. We are pursuing him. But that man's reputation in Westeros is already stinking; even if he is brilliant, we can't have such a man serve Aegon."
"Aegon cannot use him, or it would be a stain on his honor when he sits on the Iron Throne later, but it doesn't matter for the Queen," Varys said. "Littlefinger is the second smartest man in the Seven Kingdoms. For a young girl drifting alone and without support, he would be a massive help... When you find him, send him directly to Daenerys. But remember to tell the girl about the foul things Petyr has done. Don't let our future Queen be seduced by such a piece of trash."
"That shouldn't be difficult. I'll have Belwas accompany him. If Littlefinger tries anything with the Queen, he'll twist his neck," Illyrio said. "But the girl is far away in Slaver's Bay... Even if I send her an advisor, and your 'second smartest man' helps her settle all difficulties to return to Westeros, it will take at least six months to a year... I fear the war will have ended by then. How do you solve that?"
"Have Aegon land first with the Golden Company and join forces with Dorne. Stabilize the situation first and plan for the rest later. We cannot let Westeros settle down before Daenerys returns."
"That will take at least a month or two. Can the Lannisters hold out that long?"
"Clearly not. At this very moment as I speak to you, the Northern cavalry might already be marching into the Riverlands to drive out Tywin's arsonists. Soon after, the six kingdoms will invade the West, and gold alone cannot stop a Great Army. I must buy the Lion some time—ensure Tywin lasts at least until young Aegon lands. Robert must die. And then, I fear I must play military spy for the Lion to ensure they don't lose too quickly." Varys's voice carried a hint of annoyance. "Damn it, I should have struck while Pycelle was still treating the King; I could have deflected suspicion then... Now, Robert is surrounded entirely by Eddard's men. It won't be easy."
"Old friend, you are the world's greatest magician. As for how to make a King vanish, I'll leave that to you to figure out. Try to keep the magic show going as long as possible, please."
"I will do what must be done, but you must move faster. Even the most skilled juggler cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever." Varys let out a long sigh. "I need more funds, and fifty more birds."
"That many?" Illyrio said with difficulty. "The kind you want aren't easy to find—young, literate, orphaned with no family... If the age requirement were relaxed, a hundred wouldn't be a problem, and the older ones don't die as easily..."
"No, the young ones are safer. Adults looking around cause suspicion, but who stares at little brats running everywhere?" Varys shook his head firmly. "As for dying... what is the game of thrones without a little risk? If your conscience troubles you, just be a little kinder to them while they are being trained."
"I suppose that's all we can do. Any suggestions for after the landing?"
"Mingle with the pirates hired by the Lannisters and land quietly in the Stormlands. Do not assemble in large numbers or raise the dragon banner initially. Follow Griffin's lead on the specifics; he knows the area. Then secretly link up with Dorne... See if you can take Storm's End. If successful, use the momentum of the Stormlands and Dorne to officially announce the return. If not, you can retreat into nearby Dorne and wait for the Queen to arrive with three dragons and the Unsullied." Varys shook his head. "Specifics are useless to discuss now. Once war starts, anything can happen. You've gathered a pile of advisors and followers for young Aegon; it's time to put them to use."
Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/MistaQuartz
On Patreon, you can explore Extra Chapters in advance!