Chapter 92: The Information Racing Circuit
The following morning, Egger and Tyrion rose early. Armed with the certification signed by Eddard Stark and the commission provided by Mormont, they launched into their first frantic shopping spree since entering this world.
For the first time since its establishment, the Night's Watch recruitment office did not open its doors in the morning. Every employee, including Jaqen, followed their commander to the Street of Steel within the city and the cargo distribution centers at the Blackwater docks for procurement.
The task for the subordinates was simple: carry the money and protect it.
A group of Night's Watchmen dressed in black and carrying weapons, reinforced by two fully armed Lannister guards in dark red armor, plus a dwarf whom almost no one in the city failed to recognize—well, it would be a miracle if anyone in King's Landing dared to try anything against such a strange and intimidating ensemble.
They brought out half of their total capital, over a thousand gold dragons. As the sun rose, they tracked down several major merchants with the most abundant supplies and spent lavishly, purchasing grain and military equipment worth nearly ten times the cash they carried: enough food to feed the entire Night's Watch for months, over a hundred horses, and enough steel swords, crossbows, and arrows to arm seventy or eighty men to the teeth in minutes.
The pair didn't even bother haggling; they paid one-tenth of the total as a deposit on the spot, at a price slightly higher than market value. Their only requirement: sign the agreement.
The contract stipulated that these goods must be inventoried and consolidated at the port warehouses as quickly as possible, to be shipped to Eastwatch-by-the-Sea in installments within two weeks. Once the goods arrived at the Wall and were delivered to the Night's Watch, the supplier would take the receipt obtained from the Watch at Eastwatch back to the office in King's Landing to claim the remaining 90% of the payment.
The penalty for breach of contract was set at one-tenth of the total value—the same amount as the deposit.
To put it simply: if Egger suddenly decided he didn't want the goods, he would lose his entire deposit, effectively giving the money away. However, if the supplier decided to terminate the deal before shipment, they would have to return double the deposit.
The terms seemed reasonable and the price was fair, but in reality, Egger didn't have enough capital to pay the remaining 90%. He was using a white wolf strategy—leveraging a small amount to gain temporary ownership of supplies worth ten times his deposit and five times the total net worth of the Night's Watch office.
Once news of the turmoil in the Vale leaked from the Red Keep and reached the ears of these merchants, the prices of grain and arms would inevitably skyrocket. The same logic Tyrion used to analyze the situation would occur to the merchants, perhaps just half a beat later. Before Robert could even summon the hosts of the Seven Kingdoms to march on the Vale, the price of supplies would far exceed a 10% increase.
Egger and Tyrion weren't looking to profit from the price difference, however; they were hunting the breach-of-contract penalty.
The reason was simple: collecting a penalty was risk-free, but trying to flip the goods for a profit was like pulling teeth from a tiger. A supplier capable of providing such a massive amount of goods inevitably had a powerful background, even if they held no title themselves. It was impossible for Egger, even with the Hand's letter, to flip goods he hadn't fully paid for to a third party at a higher price while they were still in the original owner's warehouse.
The transaction would stall. If the deposit had been their own money and they weren't afraid of death, they could have set a higher penalty and dug in their heels for a bigger payout. But as creditors began demanding redemptions, their capital chain would quickly go from tight to snapped, and then everything would be over.
By making a proactive concession and accepting the penalty to become the victim of the supplier's breach, they seemingly gave up the lion's share of the profit. In reality, they made a killing while avoiding future accusations and trouble. The goods never reached our hands, and the Night's Watch was a victim of rising prices—how could anyone call us war profiteers?
Don't forget who the current Hand was: the honorable-to-a-fault Eddard Stark. Intent on helping Robert manage the realm, he would never stand by and watch a campaign against the Vale turn into a carnival for merchants to bleed the Iron Throne dry. Before the price-gougers could even finish counting their gold, sanctions might fall from the sky.
After that, it would be a test of strength between the backgrounds of these merchants and the Hand of the King. One could imagine: as long as Robert lived, Ned stood on firm ground. Whether this Northern lord could suppress the local power players and how much he would eventually compromise with the King's Landing interest groups would depend on the outcome of their shadow struggle.
Regardless of who won, the Night's Watch venture would have already pocketed the penalties, paid off the debts of those seeking redemptions, and—by leveraging their information advantage—narrowly survived the most dangerous trial of their startup phase, stepping onto the bright path of expansion!
...
This was the plan Egger and Tyrion had envisioned, expecting these steps to take several days to a week. If a diligent supplier finished their inventory early and prepared to ship to the Wall, the Chief Logistics Officer would just have to find excuses to stall—after all, once the ships sailed, he'd actually have to worry about that remaining 90%.
...
But in reality, everything concluded with staggering speed.
Egger wasn't the only one with ears in the court.
Since the news of the revolt was sent by the rebels themselves, Varys's intelligence network, while widespread, was caught off guard by the suddenness of the event. His little birds were everywhere, but they couldn't outfly a raven from Runestone.
Thus, the first person to learn of the upheaval was Grand Maester Pycelle, who managed the ravens and read the official declaration from the Lords Declarant. The second was Queen Cersei, though this politically inept lady didn't even consider how it might affect her. Then came Varys, but the eunuch's interests lay across the Narrow Sea; he had no plan (or means) to profit from a local war. The fourth was the Hand of the King, and only after he convened the Small Council to notify Robert did the news finally spread to the other ministers and the King.
Finally, it reached the various spies listening within the Red Keep.
These spies would then find ways to sneak information to their masters, who—only after realizing what this turmoil meant—would send word to the markets to tell their merchants to hold onto goods about to rise in value.
Each of these steps took time. The ears in the palace and the messengers—usually maids or servants—were strictly controlled. They could only pass through the Red Keep's gates at fixed times in the morning and evening. Even after leaving, they had to find their masters, who weren't necessarily sitting in one spot waiting for news. In an age without telephones, communication took far too long.
But what about Arya? During lunch, she had overheard her father and his aides discussing the revolt and the timing of the emergency Council meeting. Afterward, she followed her guards out of the Red Keep as usual, rode to the Night's Watch office, chatted with Egger, and—before her sword lesson even began—told him the news like it was an exciting story.
The girl's thought process was simple: Egger always told her adventure stories, so in return, she had to tell her master this explosive news about her aunt she'd never met being besieged in the Eyrie.
In this thrilling race of information, Littlefinger—who might have been the winner—was under house arrest at the Master of Coin's residence due to the earlier rumors. Thus, Egger found himself, by a mix of luck and inevitability, the champion of the information circuit.
By the time procurement was finished, the sun was overhead. Egger and Tyrion returned to the office. By noon, all goods on the market that might be useful in a war had ceased being sold at listed prices. Before sunset, the first sum of six hundred gold dragons—principal plus penalties—was delivered to Egger's desk. The person who brought the money also brought a message from their master to Egger and Tyrion: Next time you have inside information, we can cooperate. Don't play these tricks.
Looking at the large bag of gold coins on the table, both Egger and Tyrion fell into deep thought.
The Chief Logistics Officer of the Night's Watch broke into a cold sweat. If not for Arya's firsthand information, his Westerosi venture would have been stillborn before it even began.
The Lannister dwarf, however, frowned as he considered something deeper: if even a royal residence like the Red Keep was so riddled with security leaks, was the peace and stability of the Seven Kingdoms a complete illusion?
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