Some isolated countries have never relinquished their ambitions to interfere in the affairs of the continent. Their ninjas are known for their bloodshed and cruelty, and their internal governance, shrouded in mystery for years, has become increasingly distorted, with bloody purges becoming the norm.
When internal purges fail to truly solve the problems, external wars become the only outlet for diverting attention from their internal conflicts…
Some countries are mountainous with little agricultural land and scarce resources, yet their people are fiercely independent and warlike, with conquest and plunder ingrained in their very being…
Some weak nations, through the generosity of the first Hokage, accidentally acquired tailed beasts, strategic weapons capable of altering the course of war. Possessing such a treasure can be a crime…
Some countries possess the most fertile land and the most prosperous trade network in the Shinobi World. With abundant national finances, they are never stingy in supporting ninja villages.
In addition, considering the number of missions they can be entrusted with, they have consistently ranked first among the Five Great Ninja Villages in terms of their own territory alone.
The abundant economic support has enabled it to maintain the largest ninja force in the Shinobi World and enjoy relatively high salaries, but this has also made it a thorn in the side of all the surrounding ninja villages.
From filmmakers to celebrities, from ordinary citizens to officials, everyone in this country tries their best to avoid war. The government frequently signs peace treaties and mutual aid alliances with neighboring countries, but these treaties are forever worthless.
In every Shinobi World War, this country was not the one who initiated it, but rather the one who maintained stability. However, it was always the target of joint attacks by various forces. The desire for peace was extremely fragile in the face of the structural need for plunder.
"The economic base determines the superstructure. The essence of a ninja village is a military group that survives by relying on the state's support and a commissioned economy. When the fiscal appropriations and commissioned revenue of a country cannot support the ever-expanding ninja force, internal conflicts will arise..."
"When internal conflicts escalate to the point of being irreconcilable, war becomes the most direct way out. It can both plunder external resources to alleviate internal pressure and build internal consensus through a common external enemy. War is merely a continuation of politics through another means..."
The economic base determines the superstructure!
War is merely a continuation of politics through another means!
The third Hokage read this passage countless times. At first, he was confused, then he experienced a strange clarity, and finally, he was deeply shaken.
Simple, cold, yet undeniable.
Unlike others, this child did not attribute the cause of war to a chain of hatred, to the unpredictability of human nature, to the conspiracies of certain ambitious individuals, or even to the inability of people to understand each other.
Rather, it means that this is an inevitable consequence of the structure!
Resources are limited.
Nations' fiscal capacity is limited. The size of the commission market is limited. Yet the ninja forces continue to expand, and the demand for survival continues to swell. When it reaches a certain point, external expansion becomes inevitable.
This wasn't instigated by any bad person, nor was it due to any generation being more ignorant.
Rather, it was because when internal contradictions accumulated to a critical point, war would break down all the dams like a flood during the rainy season.
How could a child write something like this?
Who taught him?
No! Nobody has taught him!
The third Hokage, who had ruled Konoha for decades, held a high position, possessed countless pieces of intelligence, and experienced every crucial moment of the two Shinobi World Wars, yet failed to grasp this principle.
Those high-ranking figures in other ninja villages who had lived for decades and witnessed countless events of the world had never seen it this way either.
Even the top officials of other countries, Grand Ministers and Daimyo, the heads of all officials, and the rulers of their respective countries, had never thought about the problem from this perspective.
Yet this child, after becoming a ninja and carrying out missions for only half a year, had merely traveled around the Land of Fire several times.
Perhaps he had only seen the public financial allocation announcements from the Daimyo's residence of the Land of Fire to Konoha, and the endless stream of clients in Konoha's mission hall.
He went to the Village Hidden in the Sand to participate in the Chunin exams, and perhaps on the road, he had only seen the endless deserts and barrenness of the Land of Wind, and heard some Sunagakure ninjas complaining about reduced funding from their Daimyo and the scarcity of missions.
Based solely on these everyday observations that all ninjas had long grown accustomed to, he had dissected the underlying logic of the entire Shinobi World, the deep connections between nations, ninja villages, economy, and war, and written it clearly on paper.
No one taught him.
He saw it himself.
He thought of it himself.
He wrote it himself.
This child… was actually a genius strategist!?
At the end of the document, the child didn't simply say that war was likely to break out, but instead deduced the inevitable course of the war from a macro-level logical perspective: "The expansion of military forces and preparations for war by various countries is a foregone conclusion, and it will not be later than next year at the latest."
"This is not something that can be controlled by the personal will of a certain famous person or a certain figure, but is an inevitability determined by structural contradictions."
"When everyone begins to prepare for war, the foundation of peace will be shaken. The first to strike will not necessarily be the party with the deepest hatred, but the party with the greatest internal pressure or the party that believes the time is most ripe."
"Once a conflict breaks out, it will never be an isolated local friction. The Five Great Ninja Villages are interdependent, and any move by one will affect the whole situation. Any military adventure by any side will break the fragile balance and trigger a chain reaction."
"At that time, small countries such as the Village Hidden in the Grass, the Land of Hot Water, and the Land of Waterfall will become buffer zones and chessboards for the great powers to compete, just like during the Second Shinobi World War; no one can escape it."
When the third Hokage finished reading the document, he remained silent for a long time.
And the result was just as the child had predicted.
At the beginning of this year, the Village Hidden in the Cloud, Village Hidden in the Stones, Village Hidden in the Sand, and Village Hidden in the Mist began large-scale military expansion and preparations for war without exception. The spying activities of all parties increased sharply, and small-scale conflicts continued.
That's why, in March of this year, upon hearing about the unusual movements of various ninja villages around the world, the third Hokage decisively initiated the war preparedness procedures.
Because a year ago, he had already been mentally prepared by reviewing the child's documents and reports.
Otherwise, given his increasingly conservative mindset over the years, he would probably wait until the situation is completely clear before making a decision.
It was precisely because of the accurate prediction last time that the third Hokage gave unprecedented attention to this child's new report from the very beginning.
"To the Hokage..."
He had just opened the file, but the next line of text caused the third Hokage's pupils to suddenly contract.
The opening line boldly proclaims, "The third Kazekage is dead!"
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