While Karl Marx and Otto von Bismarck were in London, locked in a strangely solemn clash of pride that seemed important only to themselves—
The Austrian Empire had narrowly escaped a situation that could have turned truly desperate.
[Hungarian Rebels Preemptively Crushed!]
[Austria's Glory Does Not Fade!]
[The Glory of the Habsburgs Returns! Germany Reunited Under Austrian Leadership!]
By promising revisions to the Vienna system, pursuing moderate reforms, and carefully isolating the radical socialists, society stabilized at a surprisingly rapid pace.
There had always been countless people dissatisfied with society.
But this incident clearly proved that they did not all move with the same intentions or goals.
Disraeli's words had proven correct.
"The city feels much more pleasant now that those people waving red flags are gone."
"Isn't that fortunate? I was beginning to wonder whether I might have to recommend that you resign if the situation worsened."
"With respect, Your Majesty, if matters had truly become that serious, it would not have ended as merely my problem."
If Klemens von Metternich, the head of the Austrian cabinet, resigned, it would effectively be interpreted as the government declaring total defeat.
Metternich would be forced to shoulder the entire responsibility.
And if that happened, would he remain in this country?
Of course not.
To save his life, he would immediately pack his belongings and flee to Britain.
And if the responsible man fled abroad, the blame would naturally fall upon the highest authority in the country.
In other words—
The Kaiser.
The current emperor, Ferdinand I, had suffered from a speech disorder and hydrocephalus since childhood.
Compared to ordinary men, his intellect was somewhat lacking.
Thus within the cabinet there was a strong possibility that responsibility would simply be pushed onto the emperor, followed by his abdication and the enthronement of a new ruler.
Of course, the emperor himself—whose intelligence was, to put it mildly, far from remarkable—only blinked blankly, failing to understand the deeper meaning behind Metternich's words.
"In any case, it is fortunate everything was resolved. Does that mean I can take my afternoon nap without worry?"
"Of course, Your Majesty. We will handle everything cleanly."
The revolutionary flames that had once shaken Vienna had now essentially died down.
At least for the moment, their positions were no longer in danger.
The rebel forces stirring in Hungary were also unlikely to grow beyond control thanks to early countermeasures.
Of course, the rebels were still active.
Troops would still be required to suppress them.
Fortunately, France had promised to send support.
After completing a brief report to the emperor, Metternich summoned the cabinet officials to review the latest reports from Hungary.
"So the situation in Hungary is proceeding smoothly. Are there any new developments?"
"Yes. Fortunately our early response proved effective. The uprisings remain scattered rather than forming a large-scale rebellion."
"It seems granting some of their demands in advance was the correct move."
Not every Hungarian nationalist demanded absolute independence or death.
If their grievances were partially addressed—if the empire scratched where it itched—
Then the justification for shouting 'Down with the evil Austrian Empire! Independence now!' would inevitably lose its strength.
Furthermore, liberal movements in both France and Austria had begun distancing themselves from radical extremists.
"What about the French army? When will they arrive?"
"The first reinforcements should arrive within two months."
"Good. When they arrive, we will arrest the traitors all at once. It seems we owe France quite a debt this time."
"Still better than borrowing Russia's hand, wouldn't you say?"
"Of course."
If the Hungarian rebellion had grown beyond control, Austria would almost certainly have had to beg Russia for assistance.
And if that happened—
It was obvious how relentlessly Russia would interfere in Austrian affairs afterward.
Far better to cooperate with France than endure that humiliation.
"But France is hardly much better than Russia, is it? If they start making excessive demands after helping us…"
"No. That will not happen. Because Britain stands between us and France."
When Benjamin Disraeli confidently promised assistance earlier, Metternich had assumed British troops would arrive.
A perfectly natural assumption.
Yet the reinforcements Britain promised were arriving from France.
Even now, that fact puzzled him.
But from Austria's perspective, the identity of the troops hardly mattered.
Whether British or French—
As long as they could shoot rifles and fire cannons, that was enough.
The real issue was what came next.
"Let us set Hungary aside for the moment. There is a more important matter to discuss."
"More important?"
Metternich clicked his tongue inwardly.
Were these men truly the core figures of the empire if they lacked even this much intuition?
Still, he himself had only recently come to the same realization.
"Our greatest benefactors in this crisis were Britain and France. Do you really think they acted purely out of goodwill?"
Disraeli had made his intentions clear during their last meeting.
Russia.
Britain intended to check Russian expansion.
And that moment was likely not far away.
"If Britain alone were acting, we might ignore it. But the troops Britain promised are arriving from France. What does that imply?"
"That Britain and France are cooperating to contain Russia… and they wish Austria to join them?"
"Exactly. You finally understand."
Russia might not yet realize it.
But Britain and France's intentions were transparent.
And after receiving such assistance, Austria could not delay choosing its position for long.
Support Russia—
Or support Britain, the world's strongest power.
Remaining neutral would have been ideal.
But the scale of assistance they had received made neutrality difficult.
"In any case, we cannot simply ignore Britain's request after receiving such aid. I intend to speak directly with their prime minister before deciding. What do you all think?"
"I agree. Speaking with Britain first is preferable to turning toward Russia."
"If it were Britain versus Russia, the choice might be difficult… but Britain and France versus Russia?"
The conclusion was already half decided.
Suppressing the uneasy feeling that today's revolution might only be a minor disturbance compared to what lay ahead, Metternich closed the meeting.
Having lived through the Napoleonic Wars, he could only pray that the world would not descend into such a nightmare again.
Russian Empire Imperial Palace — St Petersburg
Amid the chaos of revolutions and liberal agitation sweeping Europe, there were only two nations largely untouched.
Britain—
And Russia.
Only now did Emperor Nicholas I finally grasp that Europe had erupted into turmoil.
He immediately summoned his ministers.
"What in the world is going on?! Europe is in chaos—why have we only just learned of it?!"
"We heard reports of disturbances, Your Majesty, but they seemed to have no effect on our empire. We underestimated their seriousness."
"That itself is strange. If all of Europe is in turmoil, why were we spared?"
"According to our information, the only nations untouched were Russia… and Britain."
Nicholas nodded slowly.
Now he understood.
Why had Russia and Britain alone escaped the upheaval?
Because they were the strongest powers in the world.
Weak nations lacked the strength to suppress unrest.
But great empires did not suffer such petty disturbances.
"Then perhaps we should take advantage of the situation. If we extend goodwill to Prussia or Austria, we might expand our influence."
"Your Majesty… about that…"
Foreign Minister Karl Nesselrode hesitated before continuing.
"I discreetly approached the Austrian ambassador. But they have already accepted assistance from Britain and France."
"What? Britain and France? Wasn't France also struggling with unrest?"
"Yes. But they quickly requested British support and stabilized faster than the rest of Europe. They have even promised to send troops to Austria."
Nicholas slammed the armrest.
"So we have fallen behind France as well as Britain? How incompetent is our intelligence network?!"
"My deepest apologies!"
They had suffered no damage from the upheaval.
Yet they had failed to take advantage of it.
Meanwhile Britain had expanded its influence across Europe.
The thought made Nicholas grind his teeth.
The reason Russia escaped revolution was the exact opposite of Britain's.
Britain avoided revolution because liberal institutions already existed and industrialization was advancing.
Russia avoided revolution because it remained a pre-industrial autocracy.
Serfdom still existed.
There was no bourgeois class to demand suffrage or political reform.
Britain had no angry bourgeoisie.
Russia had no bourgeoisie at all.
Yet Nicholas could only lament the opportunity he had lost.
"Recently it seems Britain is encroaching on our sphere of influence. Am I imagining things?"
"I do not believe so, Your Majesty. Britain appears to be deliberately spreading influence to contain Russia."
Britain had allowed Russia to seize Primorye from Qing China.
But immediately afterward, Britain had drawn Joseon and Japan into its sphere.
They had even purchased Alaska.
In the east alone, Russia was now practically surrounded by British influence.
If Austria also fell into Britain's orbit—
Russia would be encircled.
At this rate, Russia might one day find itself unable even to challenge Britain.
"Minister, speak with the Prussian ambassador immediately. Austria joining Britain and France will not please Prussia."
"Understood."
"And… no, we will discuss the rest later."
Until Austria's true intentions became clear, moving first might only provoke unnecessary trouble.
But if Austria truly chose Britain and France over Russia—
Then Russia would have no choice.
Before the anti-Russian encirclement was completed—
Russia would have to strike first.