The vulnerability window closed on the fourteenth day of Goldtide, Year 484, and nobody attacked.
Five years. Fifteen percent intervention capacity. Every strategic model Zephyr had run during the window, and he'd run them weekly, forty-two iterations per month, a thousand scenarios per iteration across the full five-year term, had included at least one high-probability aggression event from Kesseth, Sorrath, or the Arbiter. The models weighted Kesseth highest (rebuilding fleet, wounded pride, territorial pressure) and the Arbiter lowest (civilisational patience, information-gathering posture, no confirmed forward deployment). Sorrath sat in the middle: active intelligence pipeline, but military posture defensive.
None of them attacked.
