"Then let's first organize the clues we currently know."
Krum started counting them off on his fingers one by one, while Fleur simply pulled out paper and pen.
"First, Bagman died a very short time after meeting with Ken. During that time, the door to his office was still open, and there were plenty of students in the corridor between classes, yet somehow no one saw how he died…"
"That's true. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be any explanation that accounts for that, including the investigation team's so-called goblin attack. Leaving aside the fact that Durmstrang's anti-Apparition wards are specifically aimed at goblins, even if they really had mastered some other kind of spatial magic, teleportation of that sort would usually create a fairly obvious disturbance. There's no reason it wouldn't have been noticed."
"And Bagman didn't react at all before he died."
Avada carefully recalled what he had observed.
"If the attacker couldn't be seen, that would at least be understandable. A Disillusionment Charm or an Invisibility Cloak could do that. But sounds from teleportation or the attack itself, as well as the trail of a spell, shouldn't be things that are easy to miss. And don't forget, Bagman was an excellent Quidditch athlete. His reactions and senses should have been very sharp."
"In any case, there's no way that kind of death could have been caused by nothing more than a goblin dagger."
As Fleur rapidly wrote down their points one by one, she continued speaking.
"And Ken also believes Bagman may have died from the Killing Curse—but for now, that's only Ken's own claim, and there are still parts of it that don't quite add up… so we'll set that aside for the moment."
"Then there's the fact that the Triwizard Tournament itself is a British conspiracy…"
"A conspiracy by British extremist pure-bloods," Avada corrected.
"All right, an extremist pure-blood conspiracy."
Fleur shrugged.
"They intend to use this tournament to target Dumbledore, and possibly others as well. And those investigators from Britain may be suspicious too, or at the very least they may have lied about Bagman's true cause of death… what else?"
"There's also the fact that Bagman and Crouch, two Britons, came all the way to Durmstrang to serve as judges, and the reason given for it was rather unconvincing. That's another suspicious point," Avada added.
"And the suspicion surrounding Bagman's death was divided almost evenly among the three of us."
Avada rubbed his forehead.
"In my case, it's because I was the last one to see him. In Fleur's case, it's because her Veela grandmother is supposedly friends with the goblins who had disputes with Bagman. And in Krum's case, it's because he clashed with Bagman at the World Cup. I can leave myself aside for now, but how do the two of you view your own suspicions?"
"As for me… I don't know whether my grandmother really has any connections with goblins, but that possibility does exist."
Fleur temporarily set down her pen and rested her chin on one hand as she thought back.
"After all, in a magical society dominated by wizards, it's perfectly normal for non-human beings to keep somewhat close ties with one another. And as a diplomatic figure, it would also be natural for Bagman to have dealings with French goblins, or goblins closely connected to France. But my grandmother did marry a human, so her ties to other non-human beings shouldn't be that extensive anymore. Not to mention that Veela and goblins are different species, so their interactions wouldn't be nearly as close as within their own kind…"
"So if you ask me,"
she picked up her pen again and began writing quickly,
"my grandmother may indeed know the goblins who had disputes with Bagman, but at most they've only met and can speak to each other. They probably aren't the 'friends' Crouch claimed they are."
"Mm."
Avada watched what she wrote and nodded, then turned toward Krum.
"What about you? The argument you had with Bagman?"
"That was because Bagman was the one being unreasonable in the first place."
Krum immediately answered, and there was still a trace of indignation in his voice.
"Everyone was watching at the time, and yet he insisted I had committed a foul. During halftime, I went to demand an explanation from him, and he started speaking in that sarcastic tone, provoking me until I nearly cursed him out on the spot… but to outsiders who couldn't hear what we were saying, it just looked like the two of us were arguing."
"At the time, no one knew you would become a champion."
Fleur frowned as she thought it over.
"Not necessarily."
Avada recalled what he had previously learned from the university and from Baron, and his speech slowed unconsciously.
"The planning for the Triwizard Tournament should have started almost a full year in advance. By the time of the World Cup, insiders should already have known the specifics, which means they all would have known Krum was highly likely to compete, and he was definitely one of the favorites to become a champion. I heard that after the tournament was announced, there was even a separate betting pool on who would become the champions. In other words, people who knew the news already had a rough picture in mind."
"So in other words, Bagman likely already knew at the time that Krum had a strong chance of becoming a champion?"
Fleur's brow remained furrowed.
"But doesn't that make it even harder to explain why he would deliberately provoke Krum? And if the contents of the tournament had already been decided by then, he should also have known he himself would become a judge… so why would he go out of his way to offend a likely competitor? Wouldn't that just make things awkward for himself?"
As her words fell, the room briefly sank into silence.
"Deliberately offending a likely competitor… wait!"
Quickly reviewing all the clues he had gathered over the past few days, Avada's eyes suddenly lit up.
"I forgot one very important piece of information—Ludo Bagman is a compulsive gambler! That so-called debt dispute with the goblins was actually because he lost money betting with them!"
"A gambler?"
Krum thought for a moment, puzzled.
"But what does that have to do with him deliberately provoking a likely competitor?"
"He may have been trying to manipulate the odds!"
Avada took a deep breath and forcibly calmed himself.
"Just like with other major sporting events, the Triwizard Tournament definitely has a betting market attached to it. And given Ludo Bagman's gambling addiction, plus the fact that he had just lost a bet and gone into debt… he had absolutely no reason not to participate in the betting on the Triwizard Tournament!"
"And he just happened to be one of the judges!"
Fleur's eyes lit up as well, instantly grasping Avada's train of thought.
"And once the other bettors saw that one of the three champions had already offended a judge, they would naturally think that person's chances of winning had gone down, which would affect the odds…"
"…Are you saying he would bet on me to win, and then use his position as a judge to help me win?"
Krum looked as though his brain was struggling to keep up.
"Isn't that a little too far-fetched??"
"Did you forget? Cheating is one of the most famous traditions of the Triwizard Tournament!"
Avada said quickly.
"And on top of that, he was carrying a huge debt that needed repaying… trying something on the side would have been perfectly normal! As a judge, it would have been almost effortless for him to rig things a little during the competition. And with the tournament being held on Krum's home ground this time, Karkaroff might even have been willing to cooperate! That would have been a win-win!"
"But everything we're saying now is still just deduction."
Krum frowned.
"We don't have any solid evidence. And besides, even if we confirm that, so what? What does it have to do with Bagman's cause of death?"
"If that really is the case, then Bagman is even less likely to have been killed by goblins!"
Fleur explained with some excitement as well.
"Goblins are creatures obsessed with money, so they would definitely understand all the twists and turns of gambling markets. They would also know that Bagman was trying every possible way to make money and pay off his debts—and that he had a decent chance of succeeding. Why would they kill him at a time like that?"
"So now, all we need to do is find out who Bagman bet on to win the tournament. If it really was Krum, then we'll have solved half the truth!"
Avada clenched his fist excitedly.
(End of Chapter)