Chapter 199: The European Strategy of "Distant Alliances and Near Attacks"
Arthur's talks with Wilhelm II went very smoothly. Of course, this time it was the German Empire that sought Australia's and Arthur's cooperation, so Wilhelm II readily agreed to almost all of Arthur's requests.
In the following days, Wilhelm II personally took Arthur on a tour of the daily training of the German Army and the Navy's exercises. After experiencing firsthand the powerful land and naval forces of the German Empire, Arthur, along with Wilhelm II, set off north towards the Russian Empire.
The Russian Empire was the final stop of Arthur's European tour and one of the main purposes of his trip to Europe. Regardless of whether the German-Russian alliance had a chance to succeed, it would bring substantial benefits to Australia and offer guaranteed returns.
The German Empire's eastern border adjoined the Russian Empire's western border, but Wilhelm II and Arthur chose to travel to the Russian Empire by naval fleet. Of course, this was also related to their primary destination. Wilhelm II and Nicholas II had agreed to meet on Bjork Island in the Gulf of Finland for their first official discussion about the German-Russian alliance. Although the formal meeting would take place on the ship, they had already decided that Bjork Island would be the location for the discussions.
After a three-day sea voyage, on August 2, 1905, the two fleets carrying Wilhelm II and Arthur arrived near Bjork Island. Soon after, Nicholas II's Baltic Fleet arrived as well.
Unlike the first meeting, this time, with Australia's participation, the meeting location was officially set on Bjork Island. The attendants and servants worked together to quickly set up a temporary venue for the talks.
Because the atmosphere was less formal, the temporary structure looked more like a vacation retreat. Servants brought out various foods, fruits, and pre-prepared beverages from their respective ships.
An important meeting about Europe's future was thus launched in this casual setting.
Of the three leaders—Wilhelm II, Nicholas II, and Arthur—Wilhelm II, being the oldest, took the lead in initiating the talks. Arthur, being the youngest, played more of a listening role, learning from the two monarchs' diplomatic skills and absorbing the current progress of the German-Russian negotiations.
After the three exchanged pleasantries, the negotiations officially began.
Wilhelm II began by reiterating the German Empire's stance, expressing Germany's willingness to provide significant loans to the Russian Empire and support its Far East policy. Nicholas II nodded repeatedly, and many of Wilhelm II's proposals resonated deeply with him.
The reason for the Russian Empire's defeat in the previous Russo-Japanese War was not only the internal decay of Russia but also the lack of international support compared to Japan. Although France, its sole ally, chose to support Russia, such support was limited and insufficient to change the situation in the Far East.
Moreover, under France's requests, most of Russia's main forces in Europe had not been deployed, and the troops in the Far East were mostly newly recruited soldiers with less than a year of training.
This resulted in massive casualties in the Russian Empire, with over 200,000 soldiers dead and indirect deaths reaching as high as 300,000.
Although most of these soldiers were newly recruited, and the Russian Empire's military strength was not severely impacted, such losses still made many people dissatisfied, and the defeat in the war became one of the key factors contributing to domestic instability.
Had Russia been able to mobilize one-third of its European troops to the Far East, the outcome of the war could have been quite different.
This led some people in Russia to feel disappointed with France. They believed their once-hopeful ally had instead become a burden during the war.
Germany's attitude and promises were starkly different from France's. Had it not been for the pre-existing alliance with France, Nicholas II might have agreed to Wilhelm II's terms right on the spot.
When the discussion turned to the Far East issue, both Nicholas II and Wilhelm II looked towards Arthur.
If Australia could strongly support the Russian Empire in the upcoming Far East war, the logistical problems in the region could be partially solved.
This was the advantage of proximity—Australia's influence in the Far East could rival that of the second-tier European powers. When it came to weaponry and resource support, Australia could already be considered a major power.
Arthur nodded in agreement. Australia's support for the Russian Empire's actions in the Far East would bring no harm to Australia. In fact, the large-scale arms trade would stimulate the development of Australia's industrial and military industries, benefiting Australia's future expansion of its military forces.
However, the Russian Empire's Far East policy would inevitably face fierce resistance from Japan and opposition from the British Empire and the United States.
Given the Russian Empire's current internal and external crises, achieving success in the Far East would not be easy.
Although supporting Russia would cause Australia to lose the arms market from Japan, Japan mainly relied on the British Empire and the United States, and only these two countries provided Japan with large loans.
Once Arthur had given his support and assurance, Nicholas II nodded in satisfaction, accepting Wilhelm II's proposal to support Russia's Far East policy.
However, there was still significant opposition from the Russian people and officials, who were unwilling to abandon their alliance with France. Since the time of the Russian-French alliance, large amounts of French capital had flooded into the Russian market, and Russia had become heavily dependent on France for financial support and loans.
Ending the alliance with France hastily would be a significant blow to the Russian Empire. Moreover, Russia was currently experiencing a large wave of strikes, and suddenly severing ties with France's loan support could lead to greater internal turmoil before German loans could fill the gap.
This would result in many workers losing their jobs and would only exacerbate Russia's domestic unrest.
This was one of the key reasons why many Russian officials, including Nicholas II, were hesitant about the German-Russian alliance. Russia could not afford significant changes in its domestic situation at this point.
Nicholas II was well aware of this, and though he was tempted by Wilhelm II's proposal, he remained indecisive.
The first day of talks ended with this indecision. While all three parties—Germany, Russia, and Australia—had a desire to cooperate, it was clear that Nicholas II was still too hesitant, or at least the opinions within Russia were not unified.
After Nicholas II quickly left, Arthur did not hurry back to the ship. Instead, he turned to Wilhelm II, who seemed somewhat troubled, and said with a smile, "Cousin, are you in a bad mood?"
Although Arthur knew the answer, Wilhelm II was not offended and instead sighed, explaining, "I really can't understand what the French have given Russia to make them so unwilling to give up the treaty with France."
Despite Wilhelm II offering Russia numerous favorable terms, Nicholas II was still hesitant.
Comparing the attitude of Germany and France towards Russia before the Russo-Japanese War, Wilhelm II even thought Nicholas II had been kicked in the head by a mule.
"You seem to have missed something, Cousin Wilhelm. Compared to becoming allies, I think the best relationship for Germany and Russia is to remain neutral towards each other," Arthur said, not answering Wilhelm II directly, but speaking with an underlying meaning.
"Oh? What do you mean?" Wilhelm II asked, intrigued and surprised.
"From a geographical standpoint, Germany and Russia are neighbors, both dominant powers on the European continent. But Russia and France are far apart, with Germany in between, so there's no real territorial conflict," Arthur explained.
"As allies, France and Russia could gain German territory and continue to use Germany as a buffer. But if Germany and Russia were allies, Germany could divide French land, and what would Russia get? This is not the medieval era where land swaps were common."
Even in Europe, the diplomatic concept of "distant alliances and near attacks" still applies.
Although Russia places great importance on its Far East policy, its core interests remain in Europe, and it must consider European developments.
As allies, France and Russia could win German land through victory in war to replenish their resources, and the two countries would have Germany as a buffer, preventing many conflicts.
But if Germany and Russia were allies, the only enemy left in Europe would be France. However, the distance between France and Russia is too great, and Russia would naturally not be foolish enough to occupy a remote land without the support of its people.
So would Germany just grow stronger by annexing France's land? After defeating France, Germany's next natural rival would be Russia.
Russia is not Germany's opponent now, but after Germany grows stronger with more land, it certainly would become a formidable opponent.
This development would make Russia reconsider—whether a German-Russian alliance was really more suitable than a French-Russian one.
Aside from the fact that Russia temporarily couldn't afford to lose France's capital, the potential dangers of a German-Russian alliance were also a reason for hesitation among Russian officials and Nicholas II.
Wilhelm II was silent for a moment before nodding. "That's indeed true. The goal of the Franco-Russian alliance is essentially to counter the German Empire."
"So, I believe the best relationship for Germany and Russia is neutrality. Of course, how to define that neutrality, and the diplomatic bottom line for both countries, will have to be determined by your officials," Arthur said with a smile.
(End of Chapter)
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