Chapter 239: Arima Kinen — Early-Stage Simulation
After placing the four pieces into position on the sandbox model, Makoto extended his hand and began simulating the race while speaking.
"Assuming all of you get a clean start, it's obvious that you and Lia Fail, who are positioned in the middle, will have the greatest advantage."
"However…"
Instead of continuing in one go like in their previous preparation sessions, he deliberately paused and looked at Kitasan Black.
"The early stage of the Arima Kinen is a bit different from most G1 races. Do you remember why?"
As usual, Kitasan Black was holding a carrot-shaped ballpoint pen in one hand and a small notebook used to record training details and reflections in the other.
"Yes, yes! I remember!"
As soon as Makoto finished speaking, she immediately raised her hand and answered:
"Although the Arima Kinen uses the inner course of Nakayama Racecourse, the starting point is actually on the outer course."
"The distance from the outer-course start to the inner course is about 73 meters, and because the inner and outer courses merge there, the space is wider than in most other G1 races."
"Based on the average pace in the early stage of this race, it takes about six seconds after leaving the gate to reach that point."
"So the best time to secure position before the middle stage is around six seconds after the start."
"And compared to the outer side, the inner lane is more advantageous."
Makoto nodded with satisfaction.
For the current Kitasan Black, what she lacked most when facing the opponents in the Arima Kinen was experience.
It wasn't that there was any real gap in physical development—differences like that could be compensated for through training.
Moreover, her physical constitution was exceptionally strong. Her training volume was far higher than most of her peers and wasn't even much lower than that of many senior runners.
But experience was different.
The difference between racing and training was enormous. Running one more race simply meant having more experience, and that was something that couldn't truly be replaced.
Fortunately, while it couldn't be replaced directly, it could be approximated.
During their preparations for the Arima Kinen, Kitasan Black had spent a lot of time observing opponents together with Makoto.
During that time, he explained many things that trainers normally wouldn't go into detail about.
In addition, he often inserted deeper explanations into other parts of their training.
What pleased him—and even exceeded his expectations—was that although his assigned runner couldn't fully digest every bit of this information, she was able to understand most of it.
That level was already enough.
At the very least, it was enough for her to build a more comprehensive understanding of racing and to understand herself, her opponents, and the race situation on a deeper level.
"That's right. So based on those conditions, we can respond more specifically."
As he spoke, Makoto moved the pieces representing Sounds of Earth and Gold Actor forward slightly, placing them at the position Kitasan Black had just mentioned.
"Judging from Sounds of Earth's last three races and recent training sessions, her stride frequency in the first 300 meters is around 120 steps per minute. But when she wants to accelerate, she increases her stride frequency by about 5% to 10% when entering a corner."
"Accelerating like that two or three times is completely within her endurance range."
"But considering that the Arima Kinen—like the Kikuka Sho—has six turns, and that her ability to secure the lead isn't the strongest among this field, she will most likely attempt to seize the front only once."
"As for Gold Actor, she's a veteran front runner. So if nothing unexpected happens, the contest for the inside position will likely be decided in the blink of an eye."
At this point, just like before, he paused again and looked toward Kitasan Black.
Noticing Makoto's gaze, she understood immediately. Nodding slightly, Kitasan Black pinched her chin and studied the sandbox for a moment before pushing the pieces representing herself, Lia Fail, and Marialite forward a little.
"Lia Fail… seems to have a habit of suddenly accelerating when cutting into a corner. It's not every race or every training session, but…"
She paused in thought.
"Getting too close to her still feels a bit… dangerous."
"So at least before the second turn, I need to keep a distance of about one and a half lengths from her—whether horizontally or vertically."
"As for Marialite-senpai…"
Looking at the piece on the sandbox that was positioned the farthest to the outside in the early stage, she shook her head.
"The overall layout of the Arima Kinen track is still too regular. The disadvantage of starting on the outside lane… is indeed quite significant."
"It's hard to say whether she'll sacrifice part of her stamina to cut inside early and fight for position. About that…"
With a hint of uncertainty, she looked at her Trainer.
"I can only react on the spot, Trainer."
Seeing Kitasan Black hesitate, Makoto didn't show any dissatisfaction. Instead, he nodded with appreciation.
Because even he couldn't be completely certain whether Marialite would take such a risk.
This kind of uncertainty didn't exist only in the Arima Kinen, it was a normal part of every race.
On the side of random factors, some Umamusume scheduled to race might withdraw on the day of the event due to sudden illness or other unexpected circumstances.
There were even cases where a runner had already reached the starting gates but couldn't enter due to temperament issues, forcing them to withdraw from the race.
On the side of unavoidable factors, the starting gate order for races was determined by random draw, and the drawing ceremony was usually held only one to two weeks before the race.
In other words, until every Umamusume actually entered the starting gates, no one truly knew what the situation would be when the gates opened.
Faced with such uncertainty, not only Makoto—even the most experienced trainers could only try to predict as many possible scenarios as they could and continue preparing until the very last moment before the race.
Just like what he and Kitasan Black were doing right now.
Of course, there were not many runners who could participate in so many aspects of race preparation the way Kitasan Black did.
Understanding more of the race's possible scenarios than her opponents was obviously an advantage when it came to performance.
"That's enough, Kitasan. You explained it well. Let's analyze the other early-stage scenarios together, and then we can move on to the next phase."
Nodding with satisfaction, Makoto praised Kitasan Black. Then, under the excited expression of his assigned runner, he gradually guided her through the simulation of the entire race.
Compared with their previous preparation simulations, this one took more time because he intentionally let Kitasan Black participate more actively.
However, just like other top-grade races, this year-end G1 was the final highlight event, so there was more than enough preparation time.
After finishing the simulation, they checked their preparations together—Signature Racewear, cleat, energy bars, and other equipment.
Once everything was confirmed to be ready, Makoto gave a few brief reminders and left the remaining preparation time for Kitasan Black alone.
As soon as he stepped out of the preparation room and heard the door close behind him, he quietly let out a long breath.
He was nervous.
The Arima Kinen was a top-tier race that had created countless legends. It was also the final turf G1 of the year.
It carried the expectations and dreams of countless people. Every Umamusume who stepped onto that stage had the chance to leave behind her own chapter of glory.
And every trainer poured their heart and soul into it with all their strength.
During the preparations just now—or rather, from the moment they arrived at the racecourse yesterday until now—Makoto and Kitasan Black had tacitly avoided mentioning one particular thing.
This Arima Kinen was not only Kitasan Black's first clash against the senior "older generation" runner, a crucial step toward a higher stage.
It was also the retirement race of someone they both knew well—
Gold Ship.
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