A nerve-wracking night passed.
The sleepless Lord Varys was exhausted and had never before so strongly wished to slap his past self.
He had made a mistake, an inconspicuous yet dangerous one, so severe that it nearly ruined decades of planning and effort.
Everything began with the string of misfortunes over the past two years.
...
As the plan to place Aegon on the Iron Throne approached its final stages, the situation began to veer off course and spiral further out of control. Realizing something was wrong, Varys sailed north in pursuit of the Queen, witnessed the strength and bravery of the Gift Army, and the astonishing feat of capturing Winterfell in a single night. After speaking with Daenerys and observing her psychological state, Varys suddenly realized that this once weak and innocent girl, the Targaryen he had personally protected, the ideal shield and Queen candidate for Aegon, had rapidly growing political ambition and military strength. She was about to slip beyond control.
If she continued to grow unchecked, the chances of her becoming the Prince's enemy were greater than the chances of her submitting to Aegon.
At this point, even if he was unwilling, Varys understood he had to act to safeguard the Prince's future.
There were two choices: eliminate the Queen before she became uncontrollable, or break her wings and drag her back onto the original path.
With Stannis eliminated, the two great royal Houses, Targaryen and Baratheon, had no other male heirs. At that time, looking across the Seven Kingdoms, only Daenerys could threaten Aegon's succession. However, while removing a competitor in advance offered a permanent solution, it came with significant drawbacks. Daenerys's forces stationed around King's Landing and Dragonstone, including the Meereen fleet, the Unsullied Guard, and the newly formed Free Company, represented a formidable power. In the original plan, this force was meant to be Aegon's greatest asset in unifying the Seven Kingdoms. But this army had yet to recognize Aegon's legitimacy. If Daenerys were to die before acknowledging him as her nephew, there was no way Aegon could assume command or earn their loyalty simply by being the Prince.
As a deposed tyrant from a fallen dynasty, the Targaryen restoration did not enjoy broad support. Without adequate military strength or deterrents like dragons, Aegon would have no leverage to earn the respect or submission of the Seven Kingdoms' lords. Without a marriage alliance with Daenerys, "King Aegon" would likely be reduced to a pawn used by the Reach to resist Stannis. Even if he defeated Renly and won the final war between the kings, with his resources depleted and no reinforcements in sight, the Seven Kingdoms would fracture into: the Westerlands, the North, and the Vale relying on their natural defenses to become independent; the rich Reach and the still-intact Dorne nominally submitting but effectively ruling themselves; and even the Stormlands, Baratheon's own domain, potentially carved apart by power-hungry "heroes of the realm."
In the end, only the Crownlands surrounding King's Landing, and perhaps the Riverlands—reviled by all, with no natural defenses or strength for independence—would remain under the control of "Aegon VI."
And that outcome was entirely unacceptable.
He and Illyrio had plotted for a lifetime, consumed enemy wealth, and mobilized vast networks of connections and influence. Their goal had never been just a figurehead king, but full control of the realm.
The Queen could not die. At least, not before she met Aegon face-to-face. So only one option remained: break her wings and curb her momentum.
As the second most cunning man in the Seven Kingdoms, Littlefinger had already fulfilled his role by helping Daenerys return safely to Westeros. For Varys and Aegon, his cunning was no longer an asset, but an obstacle that needed removal.
As for the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, Aegor West, his book full of high-minded ideals, The Prince (Part 1), gave the Queen unrealistic fantasies. The Gift Army, which he led, further emboldened her to turn those fantasies into action. He too was a threat that could not be tolerated.
Only by removing both of them could the Queen, with her wings broken, be brought back down to earth from her dreams. Only then would she reflect honestly and obediently accept the future he had planned for her all those years ago.
The reasoning was clear.
The goal was defined.
Execution, however, was another matter.
Winterfell was not the South. There was little movement of people and the population was simple. Varys had spent years laying the groundwork to gain just a handful of spies and informants. When Aegor expelled the locals and servants and replaced them with the Gift Army, he not only eliminated the possibility of a Stark family uprising, but also crippled four of the Spider's legs, leaving Varys with only a few usable agents within the castle walls. Resources were already scarce, yet his targets were two men known for their extreme caution and obsession with personal security.
How to remove these two obstacles without alerting Daenerys or implicating Aegon had become a problem that left Varys scratching his bald head raw.
And beyond the planning, a more practical question loomed: the aftermath.
Littlefinger, of humble birth and without deep roots, could be removed without major consequence. But Aegor led the Gift Army, a force with terrifying combat strength. If their leader was assassinated without a plan to manage the aftermath, it could spark an uncontrollable disaster.
Varys's first thought was to find and cultivate a replacement. He hoped to identify a key figure who could replace Aegor after his sudden death, command the Gift Army, and be bribed or swayed in advance with promises of reward. After the deed was done, this ready-made force could be absorbed into Aegon's power, giving them strength and placing a hidden ally beside the Queen.
He moved quickly. While Aegor and Littlefinger were busy scheming to win over the Northern lords, Varys quietly investigated Winterfell, carefully observing and gathering intelligence. But in the end, he was forced to admit failure. All the information pointed to one fact—only Aegor, with his deified status and personal prestige, could command this army made up of all sorts of people from the Seven Kingdoms and even wildlings from beyond the Wall. If anything happened to him, it wouldn't just be impossible to control the Gift Army. It would be impossible to even stabilize them long enough to return them to the Gift and the Wall.
Given the situation, he had to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Killing Aegor without a way to neutralize the army could instantly turn this powerful force into a mob of violent thugs. Within the tight confines of Winterfell, without a place to run, even the Queen's life—and Varys's own—could be threatened.
In summary, what he needed was a single opportunity. One that would allow him to eliminate both Littlefinger and Aegor in one strike, without drawing suspicion, and also neutralize the Gift Army. To resolve all the dangerous variables threatening Daenerys's loyalty and stability at once.
It sounded impossible. Like a fantasy.
But after calming down and thinking it through, Varys actually found such an opportunity.
Robb Stark was about to lead the various reinforcements gathered at Cervin City—nearly a third of the North's fighting force—to Winterfell to swear loyalty to the Queen. On that day, the castle would be filled with new arrivals, the liveliest it had been in some time. Daenerys would surely host a banquet for her new and old subjects, a grand event that would stir chaos. And in chaos lay opportunity. With lords crowding the halls, Varys would have the perfect cover. Robb Stark, returning to Winterfell, would be the perfect scapegoat. The Northern army camped outside could stand in contrast to the Gift Army within the walls, creating a standoff and making even wildlings think twice before acting rashly.
Three birds with one stone. Flawless.
Littlefinger thought the North's submission would be a great victory in his contest with Varys, but little did he know, it would mark the end of his game—and his life.
The timing and plan were set. But Varys dared not underestimate his opponents. Petyr Baelish was no ordinary man. After years in the same court, Varys knew how meticulous and wary he could be. If Varys offered no resistance to any of Petyr's moves, Petyr might grow suspicious, guessing that a larger scheme was unfolding behind the scenes.
Time was short. Manpower was limited. He could not guarantee that his elaborate play would be airtight. Once someone became suspicious and started digging, his whole operation might be exposed. The best way to prevent this was to keep the enemy distracted, to give them something to do—keeping them too busy to look elsewhere.
Delaying the Queen's southward march, tossing out anonymous notes to frame Petyr, tricking the Unsullied into arresting Arya—each step was a precise tactic serving the larger strategy. These dirty tricks fully entangled Littlefinger in his feud with his archrival, keeping him focused on defense, counterattack, and retaliation, without realizing that he was just playing a game of make-believe. Meanwhile, Varys's true goal was his life.
...
However, just as everything on the surface and behind the scenes was progressing smoothly, Varys made a misstep in his rush, a careless mistake in the final round of illusion-weaving.
He had misjudged Aegor's relationship with the Stark family. What was meant to be a small provocation turned into a hornet's nest, nearly blowing everything apart.
It was a mistake, yes, but who could have guessed? The Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, who had led troops to storm Winterfell and capture the entire Stark family barely ten days ago, was not acting. He truly regarded the Starks as friends?
The world truly held strange surprises.
Yesterday morning, when Aegor lashed out at the Queen over Arya Stark, speaking bluntly and even making arrogant demands, Varys had been a bit smug. A light provocation had achieved extraordinary results. The trick that was meant merely to irritate had provoked the Lord of the Gift into losing his composure in public. Now, Littlefinger would have to juggle not only Varys but also his volatile ally, giving him even less time to notice Varys's true plan.
But when Daenerys unexpectedly chose to de-escalate rather than punish Aegor, Varys sensed something off. Then, when his informants reported that Aegor had summoned the Red Priestess who once served Stannis, and a Maester stripped of his chain, to his chambers, Varys finally panicked.
Melisandre was a shadowbinder from Asshai. Intelligence suggested Renly was killed by a shadow she controlled. Qyburn, the disgraced Maester, was said to be skilled in medicine and alchemy, an expert in drugs and poisons. The meaning behind this private meeting was hard not to imagine.
Even if one ignored the supernatural elements and looked only at Aegor himself, he was the commander of the Gift Army, ruler of the far North, fully controlling Winterfell inside and out. If a man like that decided to go mad and flip the table, Varys had no means to stop him. A single command from Aegor could see the Unsullied guarding the guest rooms captured, the injured dragons in the training ground seized, and even the Queen herself taken. Every scheme would be shattered by brute force.
Focused on outmaneuvering Littlefinger, Varys had calculated everything, except for one thing: Aegor West was not a hereditary noble. He had risen from the ranks of common soldiers. There was violence in his blood.
Worried the food from the Gift Army's mess hall was poisoned, Varys swapped his dinner with the Unsullied soldier on duty. Afraid he'd meet the same end as the third Baratheon brother, he lit oil lamps across his chamber and became paranoid of his own shadow. Fearful Aegor might send troops to kill him, he posted spies to monitor the Gift Army's main camp. All night, he saw enemies everywhere.
At last, the darkness passed and he survived to see the dawn.
If Aegor had intended to kill him, he wouldn't have waited. The cold light of morning suggested the Lord Commander had cooled off. His night of paranoia had likely been for nothing.
Regretful and exhausted, Varys decided to finally get some sleep. But just as he began to doze off, a subordinate monitoring the Queen knocked on the door with urgent news: the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch had inspected the castle and gone to visit the Queen in her chambers.
An apology, a show of goodwill, or a threat?
Varys was still dressing, unable to guess the nature of their meeting, when another knock came. This time it was a soldier from the Gift Army.
"Lord Varys, with Her Grace's permission, my Lord Commander invites you and Lord Petyr to the dining hall of the Guard Room at noon for lunch to discuss important matters."
(To be continued.)