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When it comes to predicting and analyzing the box office market, Roger Ebert readily admitted that he wasn't an expert.
However, the events unfolding before him were undeniably real, and Roger believed they signified something important.
Roger continued to rally behind Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, convinced that its excellent word-of-mouth could turn the tide. He also believed the film would make waves during awards season.
At the same time, Roger applauded The Butterfly Effect for its brilliant marketing strategies that kept it in the spotlight. He felt the film's box office potential was far from tapped out.
Step by step, Anson was building his own brand—
Market appeal was beginning to coalesce.
Even Roger couldn't help but anticipate next week's box office rankings. Without waiting for the release of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind or Walk the Line, they were already witnessing the rise of another megastar after Leonardo DiCaprio.
This year, the massive success of Pirates of the Caribbean had plunged the market into Johnny Depp mania. After more than 15 years in Hollywood and 13 years since the glory of Edward Scissorhands, Johnny was once again dazzling in the mainstream. Hollywood was collectively losing its mind.
Yet Roger found himself more intrigued by Anson's future—
What secrets lay beneath this "pretty face"?
But success wouldn't come easy. As mentioned earlier, this holiday season had the studios unleashing a barrage of heavy-hitters in chaotic succession. Major releases were stacked one after another with no discernible pattern.
The Butterfly Effect shocked everyone by toppling Master and Commander, but its path forward was fraught with obstacles—
It wasn't that people doubted The Butterfly Effect; no one was specifically targeting it. The sheer chaos of the release schedule made its uphill climb seem insurmountable.
Roger understood this.
But to him, that made things all the more exciting:
Otherwise, Russell Crowe's Master and Commander should have simply cruised into the $20-million club, predictable and dull.
So, Roger prepared his wine, cheese, and chips, ready for a show—
The fourth week of November was upon them, and with it came two fierce contenders.
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The Cat in the Hat
Produced by Universal Pictures with a $109 million budget, The Cat in the Hat marked a significant gamble for the studio, known for its "small investments, big returns" strategy. They rarely approved films exceeding $100 million in production costs, but this was one of the few exceptions.
The reasons weren't Alec Baldwin's dual roles as screenwriter and actor or Dakota Fanning's rising star power.
It was the cutting-edge motion capture technology that had all of Hollywood abuzz.
What is motion capture?
Simply put, think of Gollum from The Lord of the Rings, brought to life by Andy Serkis through motion capture.
This groundbreaking technology had matured by 2003, sparking a wave of innovation in the fantasy and sci-fi genres. Universal's investment in The Cat in the Hat was a bold move to gain a technological edge over competitors.
The film, a family-friendly tale steeped in holiday spirit, targeted the Thanksgiving and Christmas crowds. Universal wasn't fazed by Master and Commander—and even less by the comparatively low-budget The Butterfly Effect.
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Gothika
On the other side was Gothika, a Warner Bros. production with a $40 million budget.
Originally slated for a Halloween release, this suspense thriller debuted a week before Thanksgiving, leaving many scratching their heads. Yet its stellar cast had already created buzz: Halle Berry, Robert Downey Jr., and Penélope Cruz.
Directed by Mathieu Kassovitz, known for his Cannes-winning La Haine and performances in films like Amélie and Munich, Gothika marked his Hollywood directorial debut. Warner Bros. clearly believed in his talent.
With a family-friendly blockbuster and a suspenseful thriller competing for different demographics, the stage was set for a battle. However, Gothika posed a direct threat to The Butterfly Effect, as their target audiences overlapped significantly.
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The market was heating up, and The Butterfly Effect faced intense pressure from all sides. Moreover, the Thanksgiving holiday audience—largely families—was unlikely to favor it. The outlook was grim.
Unsurprisingly, media coverage reflected this sentiment.
While no one outright dismissed The Butterfly Effect, the focus had shifted: some celebrated its profitable opening weekend, while others speculated about Anson's next breakthrough.
The subtext was clear:
This might be the end of the line for The Butterfly Effect. Its performance was already worthy of applause, but further expectations seemed unwarranted.
Perhaps only a few, like Roger, still held out hope.
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Then came the North American box office rankings for the fourth week of November:
1. The Butterfly Effect: $39 million
2. The Cat in the Hat: $38 million
3. Gothika: $19 million
Wait, what just happened this week?